Premier League tricks to save money on transfers

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The Premier League and value for money are not two things that typically go hand-in-hand. Buying from the biggest division in the world typically means parting with exorbitant transfer fees, and it’s no different for Liverpool. Virgil van Dijk and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain both came with major premiums, while most recently there were raised eyebrows when it took a little over £40m to acquire Diogo Jota. However, this deal has turned into a rare bargain, and FSG can soon repeat the trick.

 Jota was not setting the league alight when Liverpool made their move. He had announced himself to the Premier League with a very promising debut campaign, recording nine goals and five assists in 2018/19. However, the 13 goals and seven assists from Raúl Jiménez helped keep Jota somewhat under the radar, and there was no significant attempt to prise him away ahead of Wolves’ second season following promotion.

 In 2019/20, the numbers dipped for Jota. He finished the season on seven goals and just one assist, and was not even a guaranteed starter by the end of the campaign. Plenty of clubs who may have been keeping an eye on him after his first Premier League season might have decided to look elsewhere instead. But Liverpool sensed an opportunity.

 The  numbers showed that the ‘drop-off’ in Jota’s second season was little more than a statistical anomaly. His expected assists per 90 were the exact same as in the first season; it was not his fault that his teammates struggled more to convert during the second Premier League campaign. His expected goals per 90 actually went up — the dip in clinical edge was something for Liverpool to be aware of, but the continued presence in dangerous areas was far more important.

Jota had already demonstrated his ability to step up a level when he went from the Championship to the Premier League and continued to post similar numbers. Liverpool were simply gambling on those numbers holding firm again at a bigger club; with the quality of players at Anfield, chances were always going to come for Jota, so a knack for being in the right place was always likely to equal goals.

Had the goals and assists flowed a little more freely at Wolves, £40m would have been a pipe dream. A seven-goal, eight-assist season was enough to convince Man City to part with around £49m for Raheem Sterling, and that was more than six years ago now. The statistical underperformance actually worked in favour of Liverpool and FSG, with the randomness of hot and cold finishing streaks (of both Jota and his teammates) providing a helpful discount.

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A similar situation is now developing with Harvey Barnes. His breakthrough season came in 2019/20, with Leicester City. Like Jota, he began to build up a solid body of work — six goals and eight assists were more than enough to turn heads, but not quite at the threshold to prompt any lavish transfer bids. The big-club vultures watched and waited, Liverpool no doubt among them.

What they witnessed next was a hugely unfortunate injury, a knee problem that ruled him out for a significant portion of last season. It was particularly unlucky in that Barnes had started the campaign on blistering form, rushing to a tally of nine goals and four assists before being struck down. Two full strong Premier League seasons would surely have seen a major bid come in from somewhere.

Instead, he has had to start from scratch with Leicester this season, and the headline numbers do not set the world alight by any means. As with Jota, he has ceased to be an automatic starter. His excellent goal in the recent draw with Leeds was his first of the Premier League campaign. Potential transfer interest, which was no doubt simmering nicely, will have started to cool in most quarters.

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